We had always assumed that this farm must inevitably do well in a wet year. We were wrong. 1987, with over 27 inches of rain (compared to our normal 21), was a poor year, but not as bad as 1986. We should not complain because many East Anglian and Scottish farms endured an infinitely more disastrous harvest. It is also worth remembering (and being grateful for) that before 1986 we enjoyed ten consecutive good years.

A combination of politicians and weather has meant that the pressures on British agriculture have grown substantially in the past twelve months. As a result, we have changed faster that at any time in the recent past. The labour force has continued to shrink so that today we employ a total of seven full-time people (Manager, foreman, 5 tractor drivers) on 3000 acres (1200 ha). The graph below shows what has been happening.

It was as a result of this new and much smaller labour force that we were able to abolish hourly pay and overtime earlier this year. Everyone (with one exception) is now salaried and the system appears to have worked well throughout the busy harvest and autumn period.

In order to prepare ourselves for an increasingly difficult future, we took a series of relatively drastic steps to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Prompted by the poor outlook for sheep and the high overhead costs of having a full-time shepherd, we sold the entire flock and, for the first time in fifty years, found ourselves without any livestock on the farm whatsoever. Other economy measures included reducing the amount of equipment on the farm which, thanks to generous tax allowances, had grown too much in recent years. We cut our combine fleet from 4 to 3 and got rid of four surplus tractors to bring th e numbers down from 16 to 12.

CEREALS

This was the last year in which we were due to grow any barley so perhaps we should have expected that, for the first time ever, the barley actually outyielded the wheat! At 58 cwt/acre (7.1 tonnes/ha), it did reasonably well, given that we were largely growing the malting variety, Pipkin, with only a single field of Panda.

The wheats did less well at 56cwt/acre (7.0 tonnes/ha). For the second successive year, Hornet did best, averaging 66cwt/acre (8.1 tonnes/ha) and Slejpner only slightly worse at 62cwt/acre. Apollo was again disappointing at 56cwt/acre (7.0 tonnes/ha) and Galahad did not have a good year either at 54cwt/acre. Brimstone, on the other hand did better than we had anticipated, bearing in mind that it was all third year wheat, by yielding 55cwt/acre. NSDO's new variety, Riband produced 56cwt/acre on some very thin land at Duxford. However, it did not get recommended by NIAB this autumn and will probably fade from the scene. Such are the risks of seed growing. A big disappointment was Rendezvous which, with Mission, did not even manage to break the 50cwt/acre barrier. All of these varieties, however, did superbly when compared to poor old Moulin. It looked lovely until one day in June we noticed that little grain had actually set in the ear. The final yield amounted to 13cwt/acre of unsaleable black and shrivelled kernels.
 
Next year, as well as giving up growing barleys, we shall drop Apollo, Galahad, Brimsto ne, Mission and Moulin. In will come two new wheats from PBI which so far have not even been named. We shall also be growing two fields of the spring wheat, Alexandria.

HERBAGE SEED

After last year's disaster when we lost half the crop completely, this year seemed rather good. This was hardly the case as yields of the Brenda and Lamora averaged around 7cwt/acre  below our five year average. It does look as if prices will be high this year so the overall result could be adequate. This is the last year we shall keep herbage seed down for two years. In future it will be grown for a single season only, but we have hopes that it can also be used for turf.

OILSEED RAPE

The best year we have ever experienced since we started growing the crop ten years ago. In very difficult conditions, the rape harvest lasted for 27 consecutive hours while we combined 227 acres without stopping. But as if to compensate for Mikado's average yield of 31cwt/acre (3.8 tonnes/ha) the price dropped by a massive 25% compared to last harvest. Thus the financial results were only average. Next year we shall be growing only the double zero varieties, Ariana, Lirabon and Ceres.

PEAS

This crop did as badly as oilseed rape did well. After a splendid year in 1986, we suffered our worst harvest this year. Yields of Progreta averaged no more than 18cwt/acre (2.2 tonnes/ha), and by the time we clean the mud and stones from the sample, it will probably be less than this. All we can now hope for is that the value of our peas, which were grown for seed, will be very high indeed. Next year we shall be growing Solara instead of Progreta.

SUGAR BEET

A vintage year. Yields averaging around (at the time of writing there are still lots of beet waiting to be taken to the factory) 20 tonnes/acre (50 tonnes/ha) mean that we shall have a lot of C sugar. This is the one crop which appeared to like the wet conditions, even if these also meant that we were unable to lift 3 acres of flooded bee t.

MACHINERY

In 1986 I wrote that "this will probably turn out to be the last of the 'shiny tractor years'." It was. This year we spent on capital equipment only a tiny fraction of what we had become accustomed during the good times of the 1970s and 1980s. We replaced our two John Deere 2140s with two four-wheel drive 2150s for the sprayers. At the beginning of August, when the barley and rape yields (misleadingly) promised an excellent harvest, we also bought a new Land Rover and a Volksw agen Golf (to replace the late and deeply-lamented Porsche).

In the office our ancient Apple IIe computer was finally replaced by a delicious IBM PS/2 Model 50. The Farmplan software remains the same except for the addition of their new Field Manager.

Next year sees the arrival of one of the most significant machines for years; a new German computer-controlled Rauch 24 metre fertiliser spreader. With a capacity of 3 tonnes, it will be the first trailed machine of this size to be built in E urope. We shall try it out for the manufacturer this spring and, if all goes well, will buy it after the first season. As far as other equipment is concerned, it is unlikely that we shall spend much money, which will make us a pretty gloomy destination for the numerous reps who insist on trying to sell us tractors, combines and other goodies.

THE FUTURE

Unlike many farms, we have had an excellent autumn. Everything was drilled and sprayed in good time and, as a result, the germination has b een very satisfactory. All crops in late December look as good as we have seen them in recent years. Of course, this does not guarantee a good harvest next year, but at least it means that there is a foundation on which to build.

The total absence of livestock from the farm has already made life much simpler. No overtime during the Christmas period, no feeding or littering down. No lambing, no fencing, no muckspreading. No sweat. But in other important respects the farm is poorer without either sheep or cattle.

On the arable side next year we shall switch from liquid nitrogen to solid urea and, as a result, save 25% of the cost. The new Rauch machine (see above) will enable us to spread solid materials 24 metres wide and so give us greater flexibility in our purchasing of fertilisers. In the past our tramlines meant that we were forced to use liquids. We shall not cut back on the very high level of inputs we use today because we still need to produce 3 tonnes of wheat to the acre (7.5 tonnes/ha) to break even.

The Livery Stables have proved to be a modest success and the number of horses we house continues to increase. Horseyculture is today a fact of life in south east England; we can either ignore it or try and make money from it.

We had better face facts. No government, in Brussels, Westminster or even Washington, is remotely interested in the plight of large farmers. If, instead of farming 3000 acres in Cambridgeshire, we tended 13 acres in Portugal, perhaps we cou ld afford to relax a bit. There are still a lot of votes on small farms in the EEC. As a result, small farmers will be supported by Brussels while we are left to fend for ourselves in a harsh economic climate. It is a sobering thought, however, that by EEC standards, 100 acres is a large farm. Thus most of the farms in the UK will not qualify for tender sympathy from Brussels. This may come as a surprise to Welsh dairy farmers with 25 cows who consider that they deserve specially sympathetic treatmen t. They won't get it. And neither will we at Thriplow.

To survive the next decade we shall need to be far more efficient than we are today. This will involve keeping our output at present levels while cutting our costs drastically. All of which is easier sad than done. Variable costs will not alter much - unless the price of fertiliser and agrochemicals falls - but fixed costs are a very different matter. These have already come down at Thriplow during the past two years, but in spite of our effo rts, they are still higher than they should be if we are to survive the next few years in any comfort. Mortgage repayments and bank charges are both relics from the good years when we spent and borrowed merrily. Too merrily, perhaps. But at the time everyone agreed this sort of expenditure made sense. Only now do we find that many of our friends and advisers' are equipped with short memories and perfect hindsight.

That other vast (and very fixed) cost, Rent, is also a reflection of the recent p rosperity in farming. But this too will start to fall as the industry's problems work their way through the system. There is invariably a delay in the reaction of rents to either prosperity or poverty. So we must be patient. In the meanwhile interest rates are falling, which has eased the pressure temporarily. Long may it continue.

The past has been fun. The future will be interesting. The next few weeks even more so; I am off to spend some time with the guerrillas of Eritrea where the agricultu ral problems are concerned with starvation and not surplus.
 

1974 | 1975 | 1976 | 1977 | 1978 | 1979 | 1980 | 1981 | 1982 | 1983 | 1984 | 1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004| 2005 | 2006